El Niño and the Winter of 2015

What’s All the Buzz About?

There is a lot of buzz about this year’s El Niño event that is going to cause some changes in the weather for the United States this winter. As the winter is quickly coming upon us, here are few details about this 2015 El Niño event so far.

• El Niño events are based off the surface temperatures of the Pacific Ocean. Primarily the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean near South America is where the conditions of the El Niño are pulled.
• Forecasters do not know what this El Niño is going to do, which is why there is such a buzz about it.
• “The Blob” has played a major role in weather patterns over the last 2 years and is one of the wild cards for this El Niño event.
• So this El Niño for 2015 is already looking to be a big one, and it has the “the blob” to add to it. There is no telling what this could turn into!
• Most forecasters are sure that it is going to play a big factor in the strong winter this year.
• This El Niño could easily be the 2 ^nd biggest event since 1950!
• The last El Niño was in 1997-98.
• An El Niño does not just change the weather in America, but it changes the global weather patterns.

So What Does This Mean?

We are in the midst of a rapidly strengthening El Niño event which will likely peak later this fall as one of the strongest El Niño events on record. This could cause one of the strongest winters in recent history!

The World Meteorological Organization is claiming that the 2015 El Niño event could easily be the biggest El Niño since 1950.This is no shock that the fall & winter months of 2015 could show some major changes considering the way the Pacific Ocean is prepping itself right now.With the southern states (primarily Texas) seeing a lot of rain this May some are wondering what the El Niño will do for the rest of the US this late fall.

This is not a normal El Niño! So while the two strongest El Niño events were quite mild for the Pacific Northwest.The Southwestern States had below average temperatures during those winters.Most believe this style of extreme El Niño could send winter throughout the United States.

A review of other El Niño winters shows that an extreme El Niño does not guarantee a mild winter! Another key to the upcoming winter is whether El Niño peaks later this fall and then starts to weaken as we progress through the winter or whether it continues to strengthen during the winter. A strengthening El Niño rather than a weakening El Niño during the heart of winter could cause large changes for the United States.

Professionals are saying that the extreme El Niño’s have different physics than a normal El Niño. If the physics of extreme El Niño events are different, then they should sometimes be analyzed separately from the rest; this also makes sense considering their large societal importance.Therefore, meteorologist cannot rely on normal data to give a predictable outcome for the winter as it approaches.

There is a possibility that winter this year could start as early as November and be a strong winter that continues through the latter parts of February. Are you ready for a winter like that?

Can We Predict Extreme El Niño’s?

The last two El Niño’s do not look like each other and therefore trying to predict what this one will look like is nearly impossible.While normal El Niño events are somewhat predictable as far how they affect the US the extreme events looks nothing like the other or the normal events.

In the month of August, the atmospheric response provides not just evidence that El Niño is strengthening, but confidence that it will continue to develop because the weakened near-surface easterly winds allow the surface waters to warm. Another near-surface westerly wind burst occurred in the western Pacific in late July, which will probably further reinforce the reservoir of warmer subsurface waters. The strongest El Niño events have all had very consistent near-surface wind anomalies across the tropical Pacific that lasted through the summer and fall.

A unique feature of the upcoming winter compared to other strong El Niño winters of the past is the expected persistence of the warmer-than-normal ocean-water temperatures south of Alaska.Some have referred to this feature as “the Blob” and it has been a key contributor to the dominant weather pattern across North America for the past two years. This pattern has been associated with extended periods of warm and dry weather in the West and two of the coldest winters in recent memory further to the east, especially in the Great Lakes and Northeast. If “the Blob” does indeed persist through the upcoming winter, then the threat for a cold conclusion to winter in the East will increase.

Blast from the past!

During the El Niño of 1950’s was a blockbuster snow winter in Washington, D.C. A foot fell in December, over 17 inches in February, and over 10 inches in March. The winter was highlighted by the snowstorms on February 15-16 and March 19-21.

The winter of 1965-1966 was a snowy one, although the snow concentrated in January and February, when 21.3 inches and 6.9 inches fell, respectively. The storm of the winter occurred January 29-30, when 13.8 inches fell, on top of 6 inches already on the ground.

In the 1980’s, what was the second most intense El Niño event on record, it was a mild winter in Washington with an average temperature of 40.8 degrees. There were long snowless stretches, but the winter delivered an impressive seasonal snow total of nearly 40 inches thanks to big storms in December and February. A storm on December 12 dropped 6-10 inches of snow over the region, but – by far – the winter was defined by the blizzard on February 11-12, which paralyzed the region after unloading 16.6 inches at Reagan National Airport. “For a couple hours of the storm, snow fall at an amazing rate of 3.5 inches per hour,” the National Weather Service writes. “Thunderstorms intensified the snowfall in some areas.Winds gusted over 25 mph all day on February 11 causing drifts up to five feet.”

These past events show that an El Niño could mean some serious snow for the North East.Also, with the current trend of how these events affect the US the South East is also a prime target for this extreme event.

Thoughts Going Into Winter.

Having the Blob in the mist of the extreme El Niño causes a lot of people to be on-edge because there are so many unknown variables.What is this El Niño going to do?How is the global climate going to change because of the event?What affect will the blob have the El Niño?Will the combination between of the two cause the greatest winter the United States has ever seen?Are we ready for that type of long cold winter? 

Share with me your thoughts? How do you plan to stay warm?